Wind power reduces fuel imports, strengthens sovereignty and helps stabilize energy prices. It is also a key long-term factor in lowering energy prices – according to calculations by Baker Tilly TPA, an energy industry consulting firm that is part of the international TPA Group and Baker Tilly network. The numbers put it bluntly: a greater share of wind power will reduce the price of electricity by as much as PLN 250/MWh by 2040, protecting household budgets. By developing wind farms, the Polish economy will save as much as PLN 136 billion over the next several years, which is spent on fossil fuel imports and CO2 emission allowances. The scenario with a larger share of wind in the energy mix also means up to PLN 548 billion in additional investments in infrastructure, industry and new technologies, which will fuel the development of regions and modern sectors of the economy.
The transformation of Poland’s electric power sector over the 2040 horizon is fundamental to the long-term competitiveness of the economy and the country’s system security. The scale of investment in the electricity sector will determine the operating costs of the entire economy – from energy-intensive industry to the service sector to households. However, the picture of the wind industry in Poland today is unequivocally alarming. Poland urgently needs a clear definition of pro-development directions for the country’s cheapest and fastest-growing energy source – wind power.
– Europe today is investing in RES and wants an ambitious pace of energy transition. Maintaining or losing the competitiveness of the Polish and European economies depends on this pace. However, there is a risk that it is insufficient, and if we do not accelerate it, this competitiveness will not be defended – Ursula Zielinska, Deputy Minister of Climate and Environment, said at a PAP conference. The deputy minister argued that faster changes in the energy sector towards renewable energy sources is the key to lowering energy prices, their long-term stabilization and an opportunity to increase Poland’s industrial potential. – We are making every effort to ensure that the transition scenario guarantees a maximum and stable mix of renewable energy sources produced in the country, with a special focus on wind power, ” added Deputy Minister Urszula Zielińska.
– Adopting an ambitious but realistic energy transition path based on dynamic RES development is a key factor in lowering energy prices and stimulating investment. We therefore need to seriously discuss revising the assumptions of the NERP project, taking into account the hard data presented by the industry and experts. Poland, as a country, cannot afford systemic inhibition of wind energy, especially when the expectation of society and industry is the lowest possible electricity bills – says Janusz Gajowiecki, president of the Polish Wind Energy Association.
The increase in the share of wind power in the country’s energy mix will translate into clear downward pressure on wholesale energy prices. Baker Tilly TPA estimates indicate that. In 2040, the difference could reach as much as PLN 250/MWh relative to scenarios with a smaller share of RES. This means not only lower bills for end users, including households, but also greater price predictability and stability in the long term.
The expansion of wind capacity also has an important macroeconomic dimension. In the perspective of the next several years , the Polish economy could reduce spending on fossil fuel imports and costs associated with CO2 emissions by up to PLN 136 billion. These funds would remain in the domestic economic cycle, strengthening the trade balance and the country’s energy security.
At the same time, the scenario of accelerated wind power development means a strong investment boost. The scale of additional spending on network infrastructure, industry, supply chains and new technologies could reach as much as PLN 548 billion. This is capital that can boost regional development, increase the share of modern sectors in GDP, and accelerate the transformation to a low-carbon and innovative economy.
Energy security based on wind
President of Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, Grzegorz Onichimowski, during recent speeches at the Sejm, left no illusions when he said that without a decisive increase and acceleration of investment in onshore wind power plants, Poland will be forced to base its energy security on gas – not only for reserve capacity, but also for current energy production. This means higher system costs, which are already evident in the power market, where we pay up to 50 percent more for gas units due to the global race for data center capacity and growing demand for the fuel.
Meanwhile, wind development in Poland is effectively constrained by administrative, environmental and regulatory barriers – currently less than 1 percent of the country’s land area is realistically suitable for new investment.
– Failure to make a decision means the perpetuation of high energy prices, growing dependence on imported fuels and increased geopolitical risks. Unlocking the potential of wind power therefore becomes a strategic choice – not only in terms of climate, but more importantly in terms of economic stability and state resilience. In the face of growing disinformation that undermines trust in institutions and blocks investment processes, more than the energy mix is at stake – it is the pace of civilizational development and the country’s socioeconomic security – emphasizes Janusz Gajowiecki, president of PWEA.
Economic growth and low prices
The NPEiK, which is currently being developed, raises objections from experts and the RES industry, which alarms that the assumptions adopted in the document arbitrarily limit the scale of development of this segment, ignoring its importance for the country’s economic interests and the stabilization of energy prices. The NERP stands in stark contrast to market signals and the declared readiness of the electricity system to integrate large volumes of RES.
Energy prices could be in the range of PLN 160-320/MWh after 2035. – according to an analysis by Baker Tilly TPA, assuming the author’s energy transition scenario – WiN (Economic Growth AND Low Prices). It shows that it is possible to simultaneously achieve a high rate of economic growth, an increase in electricity demand resulting from modernization and electrification, and maintain stable, competitive energy prices. At the same time, it assumes the highest rate of RES development based on the technical capabilities of the grid developed in accordance with the Polish Power Grid (PSE) Strategy until 2040. The WIN scenario offers the best cost-effectiveness relationship from the point of view of the Polish economy, even despite much higher energy demand than in the WEM (Slower Evolution of the Mix) scenario. This means lower macroeconomic risk while maintaining competitive energy prices (180-320 PLN/MWh after 2035).
Poland has excellent conditions for wind energy development and must make maximum use of them to build a lasting foundation for a modern national economy. The NERP should reflect Poland’s ambitions and indicate a firm course of action to remove artificial administrative barriers that stand in the way of wind investment development. Artificially limiting the potential of wind power, including through excessive environmental restrictions, is leading Poland to perpetuate the highest energy prices in Europe.
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